The "S" Word Enters the Forecast

What a crazy day it’s been across Puget Sound.

The much-heralded cold front forecast for today did not fail to deliver as it barreled across the region mid-day, inundating the region with heavy downpours and strong winds. In the front’s wake, a very strong Puget Sound Convergence Zone formed over Everett and raced southeast, lashing many cities in south Snohomish County and north King County with hail up to a quarter inch in diameter and the second soaking rain of the day.

The Zone has since moved off into the Cascades, leaving Western Washington under cloudy skies and a much colder airmass. Temperatures at this hour are hovering in the upper 30s and low 40s, in stark contrast to the recent stretch of mild nights experienced earlier this week (not to mention the 50-degree reading recorded in Seattle at 11 a.m., right before the cold front’s arrival).

After some brief drying tonight, another front will slide through through the metro area tomorrow, leading to another round of rainfall and breezy winds–although this front won’t pack nearly the punch that today’s did. By Sunday, we should be done with the steady rains, but the airmass will remain cool and unstable, meaning that afternoon showers are a good bet.

The forecast turns interesting by midweek, as colder air begins to filter into Western Washington. The latest round of model runs show snow levels plummeting to 500 feet or lower by next Friday, as a cold upper-level system from Alaska makes it way into the Pacific Northwest.

At this point, both the American and European weather models are in relative agreement on such a cold scenario, which has led the National Weather Service in Seattle to introduce a chance of mixed rain and snow to the forecast for later next week. Given that we’re still a week out, I wouldn’t put too much stock into this just yet, but overall, the screaming message from the models is clear: Very cold air will be knocking at our doorstep within a week.